The Far-right in Europe: a New Attractive Alternative for Young Voters
The Far-right in Europe: a New Attractive Alternative for Young Voters
The far-right across Europe is increasingly attracting young voters. Far-right parties in European countries have made great strides in recent elections, in part thanks to young people's growing support and intensifying activism. From Portugal to France, passing by the Netherlands and Italy, far-right parties have been galvanized by a disenchanted youth, providing a newly found electorate.
In Portugal, Chega under André Ventura quadrupled its parliamentary representation from 12 seats to 50 in elections held in March 2024. This significant political victory comes as the party embarked on a strategy to become the top party for voters ages 18-34, tripling its share of younger voter support in just two years. In the Netherlands, the far-right Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders won the most parliamentary seats in national elections in November 2023, claiming the largest share of voters between 18 and 34. In Italy, Brothers of Italy under Giorgia Meloni was the most popular party, with voters under 35.
A similar trend is visible in France, where the National Rally came closer than ever before to winning the presidential elections in 2022 while receiving 49% of 25-34 year votes. The appointment of 34-year-old Gabriel Attal as prime minister by President Emmanuel Macron reflects the growing recognition that the far right has grown steadily appealing to the youth vote. This political reality is notably evident in the increasing popularity among young people of the 28-year-old president of the National Rally party, Jordan Bardella.
Far-right parties in European politics are rejuvenating their image, attracting many young voters through a new generation of young leaders, savvy social media campaigns and promises to break with usual politics. Portugal is a key example of this newly found strategy. Since 2015, the center-left Socialists have held power in Portugal, maintained in part by the dark memories among the population of the right-wing Estado Novo dictatorship that fell only in 1974. However, younger Portuguese citizens who do not have a living memory of that period are revitalizing the appeal of nationalist politics in the country. Chega has sought to become the best party to communicate with the young to capitalize on their vote. This intense communication campaign has been notably moved by 25-year-old Rita Matias, Chega deputy in the National Assembly, who harnesses her popularity on social media to soften the party's image.
The momentum of far-right political parties among young people is driven by economics and the resulting frustrations among young voters. According to the European Policy Center, economic, migratory, and energy issues are laying the foundation for the downfall of mainstream parties. Thus, far-right parties are intensifying their efforts to appeal to young Europeans, who continue to harbor resentment towards the high rate of youth unemployment, economic hardships, low wages, persistent inflation, and unaffordable real estate prices plaguing Europe. While these parties have maintained their anti-immigrant attitude, they increasingly focus on social and economic issues.
Furthermore, the EU's approach of betting on young people to increase voter turnout in European Parliament elections, such as allowing voting for citizens under 18 – as seen in previous Young People Intelligence Briefings – might favor far-right parties. This is evident in Germany, where, ahead of the upcoming European Parliament elections in June 2024, the voting age was lowered to 16. The far right, particularly the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, has extensively tried to court these new voters, hoping to boost performances. AfD stands out by its intense professional TikTok presence and politicization, explicitly directed at the youth who usually obtain political information through social media. According to a recent study, more than one in five young people aged 14 to 29 said they would vote for the AfD among the 35 other political parties in European parliament elections, many of whom will be first-time voters in June.
The Future of European Politics
The rise of the far-right has the potential to influence the direction of future European politics. Courting the youth could prove a decisive strategy for far-right parties in the European Parliament elections in June. The far-right across Europe is expected to reach its highest levels since the founding of the European Union. Therefore, the parliament elections could be a "make or break moment" for the European Union. Indeed, while most of Europe's nationalist parties have opted out or backed down on any ambitions to leave the EU, they remain overwhelmingly Eurosceptic, thus potentially undermining the European Union's vitality.
The ECFR predicts that the European Parliament will shift to the right. Polls across Europe find that young voters' support for the right and far right is increasing, projecting a record for these parties in seat numbers. Thus, right-wing parties are expected to become the third political force in the European Parliament. This could pave the way for a rightward political shift in the EU on issues such as climate change, migration, trade, etc.
The European far-right's rise in popularity among young people and their approach to courting young voters can be a new approach to modern-day politics. According to POLITICO, far-right party members across Europe have doubled down on engaging with young users on TikTok, outperforming politicians from traditional parties. Nearly four out of every ten TikTok accounts following MEPs subscribe to right-wing Conservatives and Reformist groups or far-right groups. The right-leaning MEPs have accumulated roughly 39 million likes and 2 million followers. However, the center-right European People's Party, the largest grouping in Parliament, accounts for less than 3% of all likes.
The election results will be a verdict on the current state of European sentiment. However, political victories for parties across the board are contingent on voter turnout, which constantly declined in Europe between 1979 and 2014, although it slightly increased in 2019. Therefore, in the elections, everything will come down to the level of political participation
Furthermore, massive anti-fascist protests organized in various European nations, such as those in Germany, coupled with recent investigative disclosures concerning the far-right's links to Russia might undermine the credibility of and support for these parties.
Nonetheless, whether or not the far right becomes one of the dominant political forces in the EU in June, the shift in political orientation among young people, aided by the "normalization" effect of far-right parties in policy, provides an overview of the future political landscape in Europe. Indeed, young Europeans represent much more than just a voting demographic. They are also a snapshot of the EU's future, giving a glimpse of what European politics might look like in a decade or two.