Much Ado About Nothing
The 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) was held in Sharm el-Sheikh from 6th through 18th November 2022. Organized by Egyptian authorities and joined by an outstanding number of public and private entities, it was specifically aimed at dealing with practicalities, such as the implementation of past COPs’ ambitious political pledges and the attempt to tackle climate injustice.
In truth, COP27 was haunted by the perceived failure of the previous Conference, held in Glasgow from 31st October to 12th November 2021. Indeed, despite having achieved stopping deforestation and significantly cutting methane emissions by 2030, the final text of COP26 “phased out” unabated coal only (burning coal without some form of carbon capture to reduce carbon dioxide emissions) despite its starting goal to end coal production. Because of the weakness shown by global governance, the Climate Action Tracker predicted a 2.4°C increase in global warming compared to pre-industrial levels (in open contradiction with the Paris Agreement of COP21), while the Met Office estimated that one billion people would be hit by deriving fatal heat stress.
Most importantly, COP26 did not manage to advance remedial payments to developing countries hit hardest by floods, heatwaves, and droughts, which has been the primary refrain of COP27. Last May, Rania Al Mashat (Egypt’s minister for international cooperation) declared that more synergy between public development finance and private capital is needed to implement past pledges. Moreover, according to Egyptian finance minister Mohamed Maait, trillions of dollars are desperately demanded to address developing countries’ debt burden and to attract investments that would allow ecological adaptation measures in these areas.
Though COP21 established that developed countries should provide $100bn in investments for founding climate-related projects and initiatives in less-privileged nations by 2020, the 2022 OXFAM Report states this climate finance goal has not been met. Developed countries only did mobilize $83.3bn ($13.1bn of which was by private finance), but just 26% of public funds ($17.9bn) was provided as grants, while the lion’s share was composed of loans. This situation is not only economically unbearable for the poorest countries; it is also openly unfair. “Developing countries are being forced to take out loans to respond to a climate crisis they did least to cause, while developed countries claim credit for finance they are not providing”, OXFAM says, stressing the absurdity of this vicious cycle. “Countries on the frontlines of climate change impacts face a triple whammy: they are harmed by extreme weather causing widespread destruction; they are harmed by debt-laden climate finance that should be helping them; those with debt and/or high climate risks (particularly low-income and small island states) have to pay more to access finance”.
Far from being unaware of this paradox, African countries gathered to discuss the impact of climate change within their boundaries (e.g., increase in droughts and flooding, rises in malaria and other infections, etc.). As they wanted to achieve climate justice and fair compensation for their “losses and damages” at COP27, they previously met at the Africa Climate Week which was held in Libreville (Gabon’s capital) from 29th August through 2nd September 2022. Here, Egyptian Foreign Minister and President Designate of COP27 Sameh Shoukry declared: “Governments, and all other African voices should all continue to call for climate justice based on equity and the availability of means of implementation, and guided by the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”.
Thus, COP27 was supposed to deal with several concrete issues, such as adaptation and mitigation measures and their financial feasibility; the relationship between climate change and health systems and the improvement of their resilience; the potential of agroecology and food sovereignty to reduce emissions due to food production, while strengthening developed countries’ social and environmental resilience. Nevertheless, the Conference has been significantly inhibited by the geopolitical context and by its proximity to one of the most relevant G20s in the latest years. On the one hand, the War in Ukraine and the global energy and economic crises have been a huge elephant in the room, which made negotiations even tougher than at COP26. On the other, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic new connections between climate change impacts and human health have emerged, as well as dreadful food crises, risks of water, food, and climate disruption, and rising flows of environmental refugees.
Before COP27 started, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced a report that acknowledged observed and projected impacts and risks of the environmental crisis (Figures 1 and 2) and requested adaptation measures be done to enable the Paris Agreement mission (Figure 3). However, the 2022 IPCC Report drew specific attention to the varying vulnerability and exposure of eco- and human systems, stating that they are interdependent. Bypassing adaptation constraints and avoiding maladaptation strategies will determine a climate-resilient development system, that could only be implemented through adequate institutional frameworks, consistent financial tools, and inclusivity policies.
All in all, COP27 responds effectively to just a few of the issues mentioned above. It does emphasize the relevance of completing a transition to a clean energy mix to face an unprecedented geopolitical crisis. Besides, it stresses the need for a more balanced proportion between mitigation and adaptation measures, and for more efficient policies to limit and repay climate-related Losses and Damages. Furthermore, it requires all stakeholders participate to implement sustainable and just solutions to the climate crisis, with the help of a fairer financial system to support developing countries’ needs (that amount to $803bn annually). The Adopted Results also pledge for wider technology transfer, capacity-building, forest and ocean preservation measures, and the control of agriculture and food security, whereas the keywords of this document remain “acceleration”, “urge”, and “implementation”. Remarkably, the engagement of private stakeholders and investments is considered vital to meet COP21 expectations, along with the general recognition of civil society’s action as compared to the national governments’ inconsistency.
Actually, António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, has publicly cherished COP27’s important steps towards climate justice. On the contrary, he admitted that there is still much work to do as far as global political ambition toward a more sustainable socio-economical system is concerned. In his view, what is needed is a new climate solidarity pact, “a pact to mobilize – together with International Financial Institutions and the private sector – financial and technical support for large emerging economies to accelerate their renewable energy transition”. Finally, he stated that understanding the human rights dimension of climate action is crucial and praised “the essential voice of civil society. […] Climate advocates – led by the moral voice of young people – have kept the agenda moving through the darkest of days. They must be protected”, he says.
To better understand what truly happened at COP27 and which are its environmental and political legacies for the next few years, we interviewed Dr. Alessio Novi, a researcher in Environmental and Sustainability management who also works as a Sustainability Consultant. Thanks to his wide expertise in environment-related issues, he has taken part in both COP26 and COP27 as a delegate of his university Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna in Pisa.
“Even though it was supposed to deal with concrete implementation and mitigation policies, COP27 has achieved the institution of the “Losses and Damages” fund only”, Dr. Novi thinks. “This shortcoming is unsettling since COP26 results in phasing down methane and coal production made many people hope for more incisive actions towards climate change, whose pace is getting even faster than predicted. NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are not aligned with the Paris Agreement’s terms and some crucial topics, like deforestation, the carbon market, and true mitigation measures still need to be discussed. Maybe, they will be the core of COP28, but who knows?” he wonders.
On the other hand, Dr. Novi remarks an interesting shift in usual alignments during the negotiations. “Despite the traditional polarization between China and Western countries, with the leadership of the US and the EU, this Conference saw developing countries build a stronger and more united front whereas last year they were aligned with Europe”, Novi says. Moreover, he believes that “this tri-polar starting point had the effect to hinder China, which is considered among developing countries from a theoretical point of view but starkly opposed to a stricter system of Losses and Damages. In the meanwhile, the EU, though beginning as a partner of the US, more skeptical regarding reparations, suddenly gave its support to developing countries”.
‘Is it a signal for renewed relations between parties?’, one might ask. “Actually, if developed countries are going to gain more bargaining power due to the new system of financial reparations, they would mainly benefit from increased attention to these matters. Indeed, the last COP saw sheer numbers of young people actively participate in its works, and they had the chance to speak with official envoys to indirectly ‘sit at the table’”. Finally, Novi adds: “What is mostly astonishing, is that the greatest part of those activists came from developing countries, which both means that climate change awareness is rapidly spreading all over the world and that this new-born critical mass could play a major role in future Conferences”.
Figure 1 - Observed impacts of climate change on ecosystems
Figure 2 - Observed impacts of climate change on human systems
Figure 3 - Diverse feasible climate responses and adaptation options exist to respond to Representative Key Risks of climate change, with varying synergies with mitigation
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